Epidemiology Questions

Epidemiology Questions

• The procedures taken to avoid the spread of the Black Death are similar but differ greatly to those used by NCSSM in order to prevent the spread of the flu. With the Black Death families suspected of being exposed to the virus were quarantined for forty days. However even in cases of no sickness if there was a suspision then the people would be quarentined. at NCSSM, however, if an individual has the flu they are quarantined to their room for 14 days. It differs however in that it is not as forced and cruel in the limiting resources and sanitation. This is due to the differences in time period.

• A darwinistic principle comes into play whenever and disease begins to spread. The people that are immune to the disease are able to survive and are able to live and reproduce, while those that are weaker to the disease die off and no longer take up the resources of those that are more immune and are trying to survive. The genes from the immune are passed down, and the human race becomes weeded out from the weaker genes. Thus evolution is slowly taking its course.

• More polluted urban areas.
• Immigration causes people who may have diseases and viruses to migrate to areas where people have no immunity to the disease or virus.
  
• Crowding populations increase spread of disease.
• New diseases occuring.
• Viruses that are becoming immune to recently used antibiotics.
• Increasing population increases shared resources thus spread of disease is more likely.
• Poorer quality in food and water supplies due to increasing population and desire for cheaper food products.

• Concentrations of diseases occur in less developed countries that do not have as much medical treatment and sanitation. areas of dens population are also more concentrated in disease because it spreads more easily throughout the group. Warmer, wetter areas of the world allow for diseases to live in an ideal environment, thus there is a concentration of these diseases or viruses.

• Around Day 7 is when most of the boys had the flu. (Figure 1 below)

• Most of the boys had recovered by day 12. (Figure 1 below)
  

Figure 1: Stella - Flu Epidemic Model

• If some of the boys would have been vaccinated before the spread of the infection began there would be a lower infection rate. If a person is vaccinated they are less susceptible to the disease, so in my model (Figure 2) I halved the initial susceptible number which was originally 762 to 381. This showed rsults of a decrease in susceptibility and and increase in both infected and recovered. We can conclude that the boys took longer to get infected than if the previous model, thus the infection rate is decreased.

Figure 2: Stella - Vaccination for Flu Epidemic Model